The Ever Confusing D/L Method
We have all kept wondering when a cricket match result has been decided by the Duckworth-Lewis method.
One of the most confusing methods in cricket, the D/L method was invented by Frank Duckworth and Tony Lewis.
So let’s see how it is actually done.
The method revolves under the concept of Resources. Again Confusion? What is this Resource??
When the batting team loses some overs due to bad weather or lights or whatever it is, the team is said to have 2 resources
The remaining overs (eg-Team 1 bats for 30 overs in a 50 over match. The remaining resource is (50-30=20).
The other resource is number of wickets remaining (eg-Team 1 is 150/3 at 30 overs. They have 7 wickets as resource)
So the basic concept is trying to calculate how much Team 1 would have scored from the current position if they had got the full 50 overs to bat on.
Sounding simple enough??
Well the real confusing part is in the calculation of the target based on these resources.
The target calculation depends on a resource percentage table
Below is an extract of the table.
Suppose a team has batted 20 overs and lost 5 wickets. The resource percentage remaining is 45.7%.
Now consider that a stoppage occurs and 5 overs are lost.
Now the team has 25 overs remaining.
Resource Percentage drops to 43.4%
So the stoppage has caused the team to lose (45.7-43.4=2.3%) resources
Now if they complete the innings without further loss of wickets, they had a resource percentage of (100-2.3=97.7%).
So very confusing, isn’t it? An example should help…
Team 1 has scored 300 runs in 50 overs.Team2 is 170/5 in 30 overs.Now rain interrupts play and no further play is possible.
As Team2 has batted more than 20 overs (ICC rule states that minimum number of overs for a game is 20), there should be a result…
So who won? Team1 or Team2
Team1-Resource Percentage=100 %( No interruptions)
Team2-Resource Percentage available (100-40=60%)
Team 2 thus had less resources available. So team2′s target is scaled down
Team2 target=60% of 300=180 runs.
So to win Team 2 should have scored 180+1(South Africans-don’t forget to add 1 to the par score) =181 runs to win.
So Team 2 has scored 170 runs but needed 181 runs to win
Effectively Team1 has made 180 runs in 40 overs…
So team1 has won the match by 10 runs…
Now suppose if only 10 overs are lost due to stoppage and Team2 continues batting.
What would be their new target??
Team2 has 40% resource remaining when stoppage occurs.
When play resumes Team2 has 27.5% remaining
So resource lost due to stoppage is (40-27.5=12.5%)
So resource percentage available for Team2 is (100-12.5=87.5%)
So Score required for Team2=87.5 % of 300=262+1(262 rounded off the nearest whole number)
That means in the remaining 10 overs Team2 requires 263-170=93 runs.
Now, another case. Team 1 has batted for 40 overs and made 200/5.
To make up the time, Team1 innings is over and Team2 has 40 overs to make the runs. So how much runs should team2 make.
Team1 has lost 27.5% of resources.
They have used up only (100-27.5=72.5%) of their resources.
Now Team2 has 40 overs to bat and all ten wickets are remaining, 90.3% remaining.
Team2 has got (90.3-72.5=17.8%) more resources.
Now 225 is taken average score in ODIs (An assumption that does not seem apt)
So Team2 has to make 17.8% of 225+200 to win=40+225=265 to win
The last case is one assumption I did not like. So this how he confusing D/L method works.
It is still more confusing when a ball by ball calculation is made. Sorry folks, I spent an entire day on it, still couldn’t work it out.
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